NBA Finals 2025: Key Insights Before the Pacers-Thunder Showdown

The Oklahoma City Thunder found themselves in Indianapolis on Christmas night, their spirits a mix of warmth and frustration.
They had savored the morning at home, unwrapping gifts with loved ones before boarding a late flight for a brief road trip - a cherished moment. Yet, a quiet irritation simmered beneath the surface, even if unspoken. On the NBAs grandest stage, with five games spotlighting 10 teams, the Thunder were mere onlookers.
Having clinched a league-leading 57 victories the prior season and boasting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the previous years MVP runner-up, the Thunder felt overlooked for the NBAs marquee day. At 23-5 with an eight-game winning streak, their absence from the December 25 slate seemed absurd.
Their hosts for a routine, non-televised clash on December 26 were the Indiana Pacers, who had quietly scoffed four months earlier when the schedule omitted them from Christmas Day. Despite reaching the Eastern Conference finals the previous season, it marked their 20th straight year without a Christmas game.
In hindsight, this moment was a poetic twist: the two teams destined for the NBA Finals shared the leagues headline day, cast as small-market underdogs.
The Pacers, grappling with early-season injuries and inconsistency, hovered at .500 but dominated much of the December 26 game, leading by as many as 16 points despite Tyrese Haliburton scoring only four.
The Thunder, however, were surgical. Committing just three turnovers, they dismantled Indianas strategy of capitalizing on errors. Gilgeous-Alexander matched his career-high 45 points, with 16 in the final frame, including a dagger 3-pointer over Bennedict Mathurin with under a minute to go. Oklahoma City triumphed, 120-114.
Had it been showcased, it wouldve been a spectacle. Instead, its a curious footnote, as Yahoo Sports noted: the Pacers and Thunder are the first Finals teams since 2007 to miss Christmas Day.
The NBA had its rationale - the 2024 Christmas slate delivered thrilling games and stellar ratings, a resounding success. But that doesnt erase the oversight. These were two of the seasons elite teams, proving their mettle over the past six weeks with parallel playoff surges.
Dynamic playmakers, deep rosters, suffocating defenses, electrifying fast breaks, cunning strategies, versatile stars, heart-stopping finishes, unyielding grit, and sheer dominance.
Label them small-market, predict modest viewership, jest about their cities vibrancy or travel woes, or question their passionate fans.
Doubting the Thunder and Pacers has been a losing bet all season.
The seasons defining matchup was always there - on Christmas, no less - hiding in plain view. - Brian Windhorst

Road to the Finals

Oklahoma City Thunder

After a historic 68-win regular season, the Thunder faced a crucible in the second round against a battle-tested championship squad. Otherwise, they carved through the Western Conference with ease.
Sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, Oklahoma City stumbled in their series opener against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, falling into a 2-1 hole. The Thunder embraced the challenge. I knew that they were going to bring greatness out of us, Thunder reserve Alex Caruso, the rosters sole champion, said the day before Game 4 in Denver.
Denver is a smart team, an experienced team. I know that this is the challenge thats going to push us to be great.
Spearheaded by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder secured narrow victories in the next two games, silencing doubts about their clutch execution after dominating with 54 double-digit regular-season wins. They routed Denver in Game 7, with Gilgeous-Alexander dropping 35 points in a 32-point rout.
The Minnesota Timberwolves fell in five games in the West finals, with Oklahoma City capping the series with a 30-point blowout. It marked their fourth win by 30-plus points in the playoffs, a record for a single postseason, per ESPN Research.
While Gilgeous-Alexander dazzles offensively, averaging 29.8 points and 6.9 assists this postseason, defense fuels the Thunders supremacy. Boasting the leagues top regular-season defense, they tightened further in the playoffs, allowing just 104.7 points per 100 possessions. Theyve forced 18.0 turnovers per game, converting them into 23.8 points, both up from their regular-season highs (17.0, 21.8).
Five Thunder players - Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Luguentz Dort - average over a steal per game, while Chet Holmgren adds 2.0 blocks. Their defense blends relentless pressure, seamless help, elite playmaking, and unity.
Fifteen puppets on one string, Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards said, capturing Oklahoma Citys defensive synergy. - Tim MacMahon

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers may have flown under the radar entering the playoffs, but their thrilling underdog run through the Eastern Conference has made them impossible to ignore.
 With 50 wins and a No. 4 seed, their sluggish start obscured their championship caliber. Their five-game dismissal of the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round raised eyebrows, but their humbling of the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers signaled their rise from scrappy contender to conference powerhouse.
Theyre up here, guys, Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said, raising his hand toward his head for emphasis, after his top-seeded team was eliminated from the conference semifinals.
I know from the data, I know from watching film, theyre up here and they can sustain it. I give them so much credit for being able to sustain that type of intensity for so long.
This paved the way for a clash with their fiercest rival, the New York Knicks, whom the Pacers defeated in their lone Finals appearance in 2000. Indianas high-octane offense overwhelmed the Knicks in six games, driven by Tyrese Haliburton, whose star-making postseason includes 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds, plus clutch heroics; Pascal Siakam, the conference finals MVP with three 30-point games; and coach Rick Carlisle, a 2011 champion with the Dallas Mavericks, whom Haliburton calls a savant.
The Pacers boast the playoffs second-best offensive efficiency at 117.7 points per 100 possessions. Their deep roster and relentless pace have fueled three of the most improbable comebacks in playoff history: trailing by seven with 40 seconds left in Game 5 against the Bucks, down seven with 50 seconds remaining in Game 2 against the Cavaliers, and behind by 14 with 2:51 to go in Game 1 against the Knicks. Indiana won each.
 Its how we orchestrated this team, said Pacers center Myles Turner, the teams longest-serving player. Its not the flashiest, sexiest team. We just get results. - Jamal Collier

Last Time They Met

The Thunder, who went 29-1 against the Eastern Conference - the best interconference record in NBA history - swept both matchups this season. Their Boxing Day win in Indianapolis demanded a late rally. Trailing by four with 3:42 left after a 7-0 Pacers spurt, Oklahoma City reeled off eight straight points, with Jalen Williams scoring four. Gilgeous-Alexander shone with 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting, including 4-of-5 from three and a perfect 11-for-11 from the line.
The March 29 rematch in Oklahoma City was less dramatic. The Thunder built a 22-point lead by the third quarter, sinking 17 3-pointers, including six from Lu Dort and five from Isaiah Joe off the bench. - Kevin Pelton

How Many Times Will This Oklahoma City Core Get to This Stage?

The NBA is in an era of parity, poised to crown a seventh consecutive different champion, but the Thunder have dynasty potential. At an average age of 25.6, theyre the second-youngest Finals team, behind only the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers, per the Elias Sports Bureau. Anchored by 26-year-old MVP Gilgeous-Alexander, 24-year-old All-NBA star Jalen Williams, and 23-year-old defensive anchor Chet Holmgren, with GM Sam Presti holding 13 first-round picks over the next seven drafts, Oklahoma Citys future is bright. Their last Finals team, featuring MVPs Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden, underscores that success isnt guaranteed. Yet, as heavy favorites, the Thunder could become Finals fixtures. - MacMahon

Can Indiana Win a Strength vs. Strength Battle?

The Thunders defense - youthful, swarming, and relentless - poses the Pacers toughest test, potentially thriving in Indianas fast-paced style. The Pacers have caught opponents off-guard with their speed, forcing errors and dictating tempo. With more experience and Carlisles tactical brilliance, Indiana will aim to control the series terms, as they have all postseason. But the Wests dominance over the East has been evident, making Oklahoma City the clear favorite. Can the Pacers, thriving as underdogs, orchestrate one final upset? - Collier

Matchup to Watch for the Series

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Luguentz Dort

Tyrese Haliburton averages 18.8 points per game this postseason for the Pacers. Luguentz Dort was named to the NBA All-Defensive first team this season for the Thunder. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
The All-NBA maestro against the All-Defensive bulldog. Haliburton powers Indianas offense, but Dort has stifled him. Over the past two seasons, Haliburton averaged just 12 points against the Thunder - his lowest against any team - and shot less frequently when guarded by Dort, per GeniusIQ tracking.
If Oklahoma City neutralizes Haliburton and disrupts Indianas attack, the series could be brief. But if Haliburton cracks Dorts tenacious defense, keeping the Pacers offense humming, Indiana could stun the favorites. - Zach Kram

How the Thunder Can Win It All

By maintaining their regular-season and playoff dominance. A Finals victory would cap a historic season for Oklahoma City, which posted the best regular-season point differential ever (+12.9 PPG) and the highest entering the Finals (+10.8) since the 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.
The key? Controlling turnovers. The Thunder lead the playoffs in forcing turnovers (18.0 per game) while committing the fewest among teams advancing past the first round (11.6). Their +6.4 turnover differential would be the highest for a multi-series team since 1973-74. - Pelton

How the Pacers Can Win It All

Indianas path to the championship hinges on three pillars.
 First, they must avoid catastrophic turnover deficits against the Thunder. Haliburtons ball security - hes among the leagues lowest-turnover guards - and Indianas third-ranked turnover rate in the regular season and playoffs offer hope. Limiting turnovers curbs Oklahoma Citys devastating transition game.
Second, the Pacers must dominate from beyond the arc. Their playoff-leading 40.1% 3-point shooting contrasts with Oklahoma Citys 33.6% postseason mark, providing an edge.
Finally, Indiana must win tight games. The Thunders blowout potential is undeniable, with at least one 30-plus-point win per series. But the Pacers, 7-1 in clutch playoff games, can steal the series by prevailing in close contests. - Kram