Premier League Top 5 Race: Current Standings and Potential Outcomes with Two Games Left

Recent Matches and Shifts in Top 5 Finish Betting Odds

• 11 May: Nottm Forest 2-2 Leicester: Forest slip to seventh, odds lengthen to 9/2
• 11 May: Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea: Magpies climb to third, now at 1/50
• 10 May: Bournemouth 0-1 Aston Villa: Villa rise to sixth, odds tighten to 8/5
• 10 May: Southampton 0-0 Man City: City hold third despite draw, now at 1/20
• 5 May: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottm Forest: Forest stay sixth, odds drift to 8/5
• 4 May: Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool: Chelsea close gap to City, now at 1/5; Newcastle odds shift to 1/4
• 4 May: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle: Magpies remain fourth ahead of Chelsea’s clash with Liverpool
• 3 May: Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham: Villa level with Chelsea and Forest on 60 points, now at 2/1
• 2 May: Man City 1-0 Wolves: City ascend to third, odds shorten from 1/10 to 1/16
• 1 May: Nottm Forest 0-2 Brentford: Forest stay sixth, odds move from 4/11 to 4/5
• 26 Apr: Newcastle 3-0 Ipswich: Magpies rise to third, odds improve to 2/9; Chelsea now at 8/13
• 26 Apr: Chelsea 1-0 Everton: Blues climb to fourth before Newcastle’s 3pm kickoff
• 22 Apr: Man City 2-1 Aston Villa: City take third, odds shift from 1/12 to 1/33; Villa drift to 4/1
• 21 Apr: Tottenham 1-2 Nottm Forest: Forest surge to third, odds improve from 5/6 to 1/3

Top 5 Finish: The Premier League’s End-of-Season Lifeline

With the Premier League champion already decided and relegation spots sealed, the race for a top-five finish has emerged as the season’s most gripping narrative. Liverpool are set to claim the title, while newly promoted Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton face immediate relegation to the Championship.

Thankfully, the Premier League’s scheduling team has been gifted a compelling storyline to showcase on live broadcasts, courtesy of the most thrilling Top 5 Finish race in the competition’s history.

This season’s top-five battle is unprecedented because a fifth-place finish now guarantees a spot in next season’s Champions League a first for the Premier League. With Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured of top-five positions (it would take an extraordinary collapse for Arsenal to miss out), the focus is on the five teams separated by just four points, vying for the three remaining Champions League berths.

Current Standings

Newcastle United hold the upper hand in both league position and betting markets after their crucial 2-0 victory over Chelsea. Initially priced at 5/6 for a Top 5 Finish, the Magpies are now a near-certain 1/50, needing just one more win to secure Champions League qualification (see Permutations below).

Manchester City, who started at 1/9 for a top-five finish, are now at 1/20 and sit fourth despite a goalless draw against bottom-placed Southampton. Chelsea, despite their loss to Newcastle, remain strong contenders at 4/9 to claim a Champions League spot.

Current football betting odds suggest Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa are the most likely to miss out on the top five. Forest’s 2-2 draw against rivals Leicester left them seventh, with odds of 9/2. Meanwhile, Villa’s 1-0 win at Bournemouth has bolstered their chances, now at 8/5 for a top-five finish.

Key: GP = Games Played, Pts = Points, GD = Goal Difference

Remaining Fixtures for All Five Teams

Home fixtures in bold, (League position of opponents in parentheses), Teams to play index = average league position of remaining opponents

Newcastle United - 3rd

Six-game form: ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ 🤝 ✅

• Arsenal (2)
• Everton (13)
  Teams to play index: 7.5

Manchester City - 4th

Six-game form: 🤝 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🤝

• Bournemouth (10)
• Fulham (11)
  Teams to play index: 10.5

Chelsea - 5th

Six-game form: 🤝 🤝 ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

• Manchester United (16)
• Nottingham Forest (6)
  Teams to play index: 11.0

Aston Villa - 6th

Six-game form: ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

• Tottenham (17)
• Manchester United (16)
  Teams to play index: 16.5

Nottingham Forest - 7th

Six-game form: ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ 🤝 🤝

• West Ham (15)
• Chelsea (5)
  Teams to play index: 10.0

Permutations

Newcastle’s superior goal difference over Aston Villa means they need only one victory in their final two matches to secure a top-five finish. A win would take them to 69 points, ensuring at least two of the other four teams Villa, and either Chelsea or Nottingham Forest (who face each other on the final day) finish below them.

Manchester City need four points from their last two games to guarantee a top-five spot. This would take them to 69 points, placing them above Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, given Villa’s weaker goal difference. Three points could also suffice if Villa fail to win both of their remaining games or if the Forest-Chelsea match ends without a winner.

Chelsea, level on points with Villa but with a better goal difference, need only match Villa’s points haul in their final two games to stay ahead. A victory over Nottingham Forest on the last day would secure their top-five position.

Aston Villa must win both of their remaining games to overtake either Chelsea or Nottingham Forest. However, to finish above Newcastle or Manchester City, they would need Newcastle to earn no more than two points or City to collect no more than three.

Nottingham Forest face the toughest path, likely needing victories in both of their remaining games to contend for a top-five finish. Even then, they would secure a spot above Chelsea but would require Newcastle, Manchester City, or Aston Villa to falter significantly to overtake one of them.