MLB Opening Day Top Picks | March 27, 2025
Opening Day has finally arrived, and we’re diving headfirst into two juicy prop bets that seem a little too generous. The Rangers bring a powerhouse lineup into a tasty matchup, while Paul Skenes baseball’s hottest young flamethrower goes up against a strikeout-prone Marlins squad. Both spots scream value, and with odds likely to shift, now's the time to pounce.
Red Sox vs Rangers: A Hot Start?
Can Texas reclaim their swagger in 2025?
We’re starting the MLB season right where we left off last year targeting first five-inning team totals, a market that’s been kind to us. The first ticket on our board? The loaded Texas Rangers taking on Boston’s newest arm, Garrett Crochet.
According to Batters-Box.com, the Rangers boast three hitters ranked as elite, none considered below average, and just two who sit above the league average in ground-ball rate. They lead the pack in average hitter grade labeled “Great,” just shy of the “Elite” tier and also top the charts in average hard contact matchup percentage.
Texas was a first-five scoring machine in 2024, putting up an average of 2.32 runs in those early frames and their lineup only got deeper during the offseason. This line looks like it should be at 2.5, not 1.5. Sure, Crochet has upside, but he’s still adjusting to a new team, a new season, and a fresh slate of pressure. The Rangers should have no trouble pushing past two runs before the sixth inning.
Top Play: Rangers First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-125)
Pirates vs Marlins: Strikeout City?
Is Paul Skenes about to break sophomore expectations or just break bats?
Opening Day is here, and we're backing one of baseball’s rising stars to mow down at least seven batters.
Paul Skenes isn’t just a prospect anymore, he’s graded “Elite” on Batters-Box.com and toes the rubber against a Marlins lineup that looks, frankly, toothless. Miami doesn’t have a single elite-rated hitter. Instead, they roll out three rated as poor, and nine who strike out more often than league average. Against lineups with a similar strikeout profile, Skenes has cleared the 6.5 K mark in nearly 70% of his last 19 starts.
The Marlins finished 17th in strikeout rate last season and it doesn’t look like they’ve upgraded. I took a peek at their projected lineup and, honestly, couldn’t help but chuckle. Not a single bat that inspires fear. If Skenes comes out dealing, he could easily clear this line before the sixth inning.
Truthfully, We were stunned to see this prop open at 6.5 I expected 8.5. If you like it, don’t wait around.
Top Play: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts
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FAQ
Based on the analysis, the Rangers have a strong chance of exceeding 1.5 runs in the first five innings. Their lineup features three elite hitters, and their overall depth only improved during the offseason. In 2024, they averaged 2.32 runs in the first five innings, while their opponent, Boston’s Garrett Crochet, though promising, is still adjusting to a new team and the pressure of a season opener. The 1.5 line looks undervalued—betting on Rangers First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-125) seems like a solid play.
Sergey Ilyin
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